The NW7US Beacon

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Aug 01 0147 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 - 31 July 2022

Solar activity was low. The strongest event of the period was a C9 flare at 31/2309 UTC from an area around the NE limb. Region 3068 (S15, L=208, class/area=Eso/110 on 31 Jul) was the mostly complex on the visible disk by the end of the reporting period. The region continued to increase in area around its leader spot and developed additional intermediate spots through 31 Jul. The remaining active regions were relativley simple and quiet or in decay as they rotated around the W limb.

Several CME were observed in available coronagraph imagery but none appeared to have an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels. High levels were observed on 25-28 Jul and 31 Jul while moderate levels observed on 29-30 Jul.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels were observed on 26 Jul after a period of prolonged southward Bz and on 31 Jul due to the onset of coronal hole influence. Unsettled levels were reached 25 Jul, 27-28 Jul, and 30 Jul, mostly due to more periods of sustained southward Bz. The remainder of the reporting period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 August - 27 August 2022

Solar activity is expected to be very low over the outlook period. Most of the regions that are expected to rotate back onto the visible disk were either in decay or relatively simple and quiet as they rotated around the W limb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 12-16 Aug, and again on 18-24 Aug. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to reached moderate levels. All enhancements in electron flux are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 03 Aug and 17 Aug; active conditions are likely on 01 Aug, 04-05 Aug, and 18-19 Aug; unsettled conditions are likely on 06 Aug, 11-12 Aug, and 20 Aug. the remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are due to multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs.

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