The NW7US Beacon

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels and there were no numbered regions on the visible disk. There were no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (10-12 Jul), with a slight chance for C-class activity.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (10-12 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were just above background levels with solar wind speeds averaging around 415 km/s. Total field was steady between 1-4 nT and the Bz component was variable between +/- 3 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at nominal levels on day one (10 Jul) until the anticipated arrival of a weak and slow-moving transient. Due to the ambiguous origin of this transient, and lack of SOHO/LASCO imagery, there is moderate to high uncertainty regarding arrival time/magnitude of this feature. Intermittent enhancements are likely to continue in the IMF on days two and three (11-12 Jul) with residual effects from this slow-moving transient.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jul) until the arrival of a transient, which was first seen off the SW limb of STEREO-A imagery on 05 Jul. Unsettled to active levels are likely with the arrival of this feature. Day two (11 Jul) is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels primarily due to lingering effects from this transient. Day three (12 Jul) is expected to see a return to mostly quiet levels as the solar wind returns to background levels.

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