The NW7US Beacon

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2732 (N09W54, Cso/beta) exhibited decay in both its trailer and leader spots. It was fairly inactive, only producing a few low level x-ray enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 04-06 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to back ground levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels 04-05 Jan, and moderate to high levels 06 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels 04-06 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect nominal conditions until late in the period. Wind speeds remained unremarkable at under 350 km/s. However, densities began to increase around 1010 UTC, and reached a peak of 30.77 particles per cubic cm ahead of an eminent SSBC/CIR. Bt also became enhanced to 9 nT, and Bz underwent a southward deflection of -9 nT during a brief phi angle switch to a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect the arrival of a CIR/SSBC mid to late on 04 Jan, ahead of the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist into 05-06 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active periods likely on 04 Jan due to the likely arrival of a CIR ahead of a (-)CH HSS. G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 05 Jan as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 06 Jan as CH HSS effects persist.

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