The NW7US Beacon

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2434 (S11W82, plage) produced C1 flares at 24/1516 UTC and 24/2130 UTC, which were the largest events of the period. Region 2434 decayed to plage as it approached the west limb. Region 2436 (N08W27, Eso/beta) underwent minor sunspot resurgence this period but only produced B-class flares. The remaining three active regions were stable.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 25/0448 UTC but was associated with activity on or behind the east limb and not Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (25-27 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels over the next three days (25 Oct) with a chance for high levels on days two and three (26-27 Oct).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the arrival of the 22 Oct CME at around 24/1828 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from initial values near 425 km/s to around 500 km/s with the shock arrival. IMF total field values reached a peak of 14 nT and Bz briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT during CME passage. The phi angle was highly variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on day one (26 Oct) as CME effects wane. A return to near-background levels is expected by day two (27 Oct) where they are expected to remain through day three (28 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (25 Oct) due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (26 Oct) and quiet conditions are expected on day three (27 Oct) with a return to a nominal solar wind environment.

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