The NW7US Beacon

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2434 (S09W68, Cao/beta) produced an impulsive C1 flare at 24/0428 UTC which was the largest event of the period. Region 2434 and Region 2436 (N09W13, Eao/beta) continued to show signs of overall decay throughout the period. The remaining three active regions were stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: C-class flares are likely with a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days (24-26 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (24-26 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds were steady between 420-480 km/s and Bz was predominately northward with only brief excursions southward. The phi angle transitioned from a negative (toward) sector to a positive (away) solar sector orientation after 24/0800 UTC.

Forecast: Solar winds are expected to increase to around 500-550 km/s late on day one (24 Oct) and persist through early day two (25 Oct) due to the anticipated arrival of the 22 Oct CME. Solar wind parameters are expected to return to near-background levels by day three (26 Oct) as CME effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (24 Oct) into early on day two (25 Oct) due to the anticipated arrival of the 22 Oct CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (26 Oct) as CME effects subside.

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