The NW7US Beacon

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Oct 05 1211 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 September - 04 October 2015

Solar activity reached high levels as the period was dominated by M-class flare activity from active regions located in the southwest quadrant. In total 20 M-class flares were observed with two reaching the R2 (Moderate) radio blackout threshold. Four R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed from Region 2423 (S09, L=154, class/area=Dac/180 on 28 Sep) early in the period as the region transited the southwest limb, but once out of view Region 2422 (S18, L=102, class/area=Fkc/950 on 29 Sep) became the source of the remainder of M-class flare activity. Region 2422 was relatively benign until it reached central meridian and began a rapid growth phase where it increased significantly in magnetic complexity. Region 2422 produced a total of 14 R1 (Minor) radio blackouts and two R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts, the largest of which was an M7 flare observed at 28/1458 UTC. Numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the activity eminating from the southwest quadrant were observed throughout the period, but none were Earth-directed.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced late on 30 Sep through midday on 01 Oct due to a pair of M1/1n flares from Region 2422 observed midday on 30 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux briefly reached a peak of 1.4 pfu at 01/0000 UTC but began a slow return to background levels shortly thereafter.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 28 Sep-01 Oct and was at normal levels on 02-04 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 28 and 30 Sep and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Sep under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to active levels were observed on 01-03 Oct due to a combination of weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream influence, a period of prolonged southward Bz, and substorming. On 04 Oct active conditions were observed early and late in the period with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed between 0600-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field activity on 04 Oct was attributed to periods of southward Bz and localized substorms.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 October - 31 October 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the period with likely C-class flare activity and a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity on 06-29 Oct due to the return of multiple active regions which produced event level activity last rotation.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 08-15 Oct with moderate levels expected on 05-07 and 16-24 Oct. Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 09 Oct with active levels expected on 05, 08, 10, 17, 20, 29, and 31 Oct due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

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